In my Apple predictions I went against the consensus and predicted that Apple would not significantly alter the design of the iPhone in the next iteration.
You may recall that before the release of the iPhone 4S, rumours of a tapered, asymmetrical design with a bigger screen popped up. Some case manufacturers even gambled on this being the new design.
Yet I was skeptical as soon as I saw the mock-ups. While the iPhone dominates smartphone sales, why would Apple redesign the iconic iPhone 4 hardware? Add to that the drawbacks to the design, and I just couldn’t believe Apple would go in that direction.
When the iPhone 4S was released, we saw that Apple wasn’t going in that direction. Yet now most pundits see a pattern: major redesign one year (3G, 4), then internal improvements the next, indicated by an “S” in the name (3GS, 4S). But two data points are insufficient to predict a pattern.
So here are some of the reasons I don’t believe we’ll see any major redesign for the iPhone this year, at least not of the magnitude as the change from 3GS to 4.
Change for the sake of change
Other phone manufacturers change their design with every iteration. For the most part, they are hardware makers (I believe RIM is the only other player that makes their own software). With such a focus, they believe it’s the hardware and not the software that causes a person to upgrade to the next model. Historically, I’d say this has been true: as feature phones progressed they got smaller and smaller, so the newest hardware was always the most attractive.
Why follow when you’re the leader?
Yet Apple has always approached any industry in a different way to their competitors. Indeed, the iPhone 4S, the best-selling phone in the world today, sports a design that is 18 months old. Apple doesn’t see a reason to change just for the sake of change.
I think the best way to appreciate this is to look at Apple’s other products. Apple typically sweats over the design of a product so they get it as right as they can, then that design can stand the test of time. A revolution every once in a while, but most product upgrades are merely new evolutions of the already excellent design.
Iconic
One of the primary reasons not to change just for the sake of change is the iconic status the current design has achieved. iPhones are instantly recognisable, whether white or black, primarily due to the unique steel-and-glass body.
Perhaps an interesting case study for the power of iconic design is the Motorola RAZR. The RAZR was probably the most popular and iconic phone design before the iPhone was around, and Motorola quite rightly milked it for all it was worth: the RAZR design went largely unchanged from 2004 until 2009. Sure, by then it was getting antiquated with the popularisation of the touch screen, but the point is that Motorola didn’t drastically change the design just for the sake of change when they were on to a good thing.
The “be anything” device
Since the introduction of the iPad, Apple’s philosophy with iOS has become clearer. When you use an app on an iOS device, the device becomes the app. The hardware melts away and the software dictates the experience. Apple is only really able to achieve this through the careful design of the hardware.
Symmetry
The rumoured “iPhone 5” design was assymetrical, and as such so many things you can currently do with a symmetrical iPhone would have suffered. Only a few apps dictate the orientation of the iPhone (Phone being one, as it relies on the speaker and microphone position), and creating a hardware design that dictates the orientation in and of itself would ruin this effect.
Straight and flat
Perhaps the most striking element of the iPhone 4 design is the straight edges and surfaces of the device. Most phones, including previous iPhone models, have a curved back and rounded edges. Some phones even have a curved screen. While critics may say this makes the iPhone look boxy, such criticism is ignorant of the purpose behind the flatness: when placed on a flat surface, the phone will not wobble.
Such a design consideration is unnecessary for something that is just a phone. But an iPhone can be whatever the app wants it to be, and some apps want it to be laid flat. Consider the camera: an iPhone can easily balance on any edge to take video unassisted. I don’t know of any other phones on the market without a kickstand that can do the same. And laying the iPhone flat on a desk for typing or even gaming means the phone does not rock from a tap.
Forehead and chin
Then there’s the “forehead” and “chin” of the iPhone. These may seem large and unnecessary, but the sizing is actually perfect for playing games. Holding the iPhone firmly in a landscape orientation, your thumbs can reach every corner of the screen comfortably. They wouldn’t be able to do so with smaller surroundings. It’s part of what has made iOS such a great gaming platform.
Screen size
The debate over the ideal screen size still rages. Dustin Curtis examined ergonomic reasons for Apple sticking with 3.5” just before the release of the iPhone 4S, and this argument won’t have changed at all come time for the iPhone 5. Earlier this month, John Gruber postulated that giant phone screens were primarily a side-effect of accommodating LTE and the larger batteries it requires. Certainly it does seem perverse that phones would start getting bigger again after decades of getting smaller.
Camera placement
The positioning of the iPhone’s camera is fairly irregular compared to the competition. John Gruber has been pondering this in recent episodes of The Talk Show, and the best explanation he offers is the camera placement not competing with the screen for space internally. Looking at the camera bulges on Samsung phones, this seems like a reasonable explanation. But I think there is more to it than just that. I couldn’t help noticing on a recent overseas trip that with the camera off to the side, I had more room to firmly grip the phone in my hand. This meant it was more secure in my grip, and it gave me the confidence to snap photos I would have otherwise felt too risky to attempt. With my previous camera, I attached a spare Wii remote wrist-strap to get the same feeling of security.
A centralised lens may seem like the ideal location for a traditional camera, but when the iPhone can rotate to any orientation, having the lens in the corner gives you a lot more flexibility.
iPhone 5 and beyond
So does this mean the iPhone design cannot be improved? Well, no. I think the design will go mostly unchanged, though not wholly unchanged. Again, evolutionary rather than revolutionary. Perhaps if the phone weighed a bit less, it would be nicer, and a thinner phone would probably be generally appreciated too (though not so much thinner it can no longer balance on its edge). Yet these improvements don’t call for a complete overhaul of the design, so why do such a thing? A lighter, thinner design would still work while keeping the fundamentals mostly the same.
I also think we’ll see Apple embrace the “be anything” angle even more: though they currently embrace it far more than any other phone or tablet maker. Better speaker placement could really enhance the gaming and video aspects of the iPhone, for example.
It would also be naive of me to believe Apple will never overhaul the design. Eventually even iconic designs go out of style. But the current iPhone design has still got a lot of life left in it, and Apple has always needed a much better reason to change than “everyone else is doing it”.
