Seanification

Tim Cook at the D Conference

There’s plenty of reading between the lines to be done on Tim Cook’s interview at the D Conference (transcript at MacRumors).

A few bits in particular stood out to me.

The new iPhone

Tim Cook comments on advantages the iPhone has over Android:

One of our advantages is that we’re not fragmented. 

[…]

We have one phone with one screen size and one resolution. It’s pretty simple if you’re developing for this platform.

This has always been an advantage to developing for iOS, but if the rumours of a larger screen on the next iPhone have any merit (and part leaks are indicating they do) then Cook’s words are going to look pretty bad in hindsight.

It’s looking quite likely the next iPhone will have a larger screen (it even looks, sadly, like the phone itself will be larger, which has always been my criticism of giant Android phones). Although the screen will only be different in one dimension from the current screen, it will still be fragmentation; far greater fragmentation than the introduction of the Retina display brought. My app should make the transition easily since it only uses standard user interface components, but for a lot of custom-designed apps there will be a tough transition period. With Apple’s tendency to provide little warning for developers before a new product is available, few will be able to correct any problems and get them approved by Apple before a new product launch.

Still, we iOS Developers still have things pretty good when you look at the alternatives.

The Apple TV set

Then there’s all the excitement around an Apple TV set. When talking about the Apple TV, Cook acknowledges the living room needs some Apple-style love:

So, the customer satisfaction with that product is incredible. We’re going to keep pulling this string and see where it takes us. Many people would say “this is an area in their life that they aren’t pleased with.” They might not be pleased with many things about it. The whole TV experience. It’s an interesting area. We’ll have to see what we do. Right now our contribution is Apple TV.

When further pushed to comment on an actual TV set, he definitely suggests they’re exploring it:

We would look at this and say can we control the key technology? Can we make a significant contribution beyond what others have made in this area? Can we make a product that we would all want? That’s all thing we would ask about any new product category. It’s the ones we ask about products within families we’re thinking about now.

I’ve been sceptical about an Apple TV set, and this doesn’t change my mind. Apple can certainly make a significant contribution beyond what others have made: that’s what everyone is crying out for. But I believe they can’t yet control the key technology and they can’t yet make a product that we all would want.

When it comes to controlling the technology, something an Apple TV set is definitely going to need is an internet connection. In the US, cable companies control the internet connections: the very companies that feel threatened by the rise of iTunes. I doubt an Apple TV will provide the ability for a cable TV service to just be plugged in: cable TV services are, after all, a big reason people have for demanding Apple fix the living room experience.

This also relates to the concept of a product we all want. People buying a television today still want to be able to use “legacy” systems to get their content. They want to be able to watch regular broadcast television or cable television. They want to plug in peripherals like Blu-ray players and game consoles. Some people, bless them, even still want to be able to record television shows to watch later.

I just can’t see Apple releasing a product that is capable of doing any of these things. The problem with the television experience is exactly all these different elements that people want: broadcast TV, cable TV, and external inputs. A coffee table full of remote controls and a mess of cables flowing out the back of the TV are not things with which Apple wants to be associated. Alex Micek’s list of five things about television illustrate what’s wrong with TV, and Apple can’t fix it if they support the legacy technology upon which everyone still relies.

So how will Apple fix the living room? What have they “cracked” according to Steve Jobs? I believe Apple will announce an Apple TV API at this year’s WWDC to let developers create apps for the Apple TV. John Gruber seems to agree. This will begin to pave the way for changes in mindset for content providers to change their content delivery from channels to apps. Only once there has been significant buy-in (and once the US cable providers don’t feel threatened) will we see a place for an Apple TV set.

That isn’t to say Apple won’t release a TV set this year. What I’m doubting is that it will instantly be the TV set that everyone wants. If it does come this year, it is still too early to be the be-all-end-all living room solution. It will still sell well from early adopters and enthusiasts, but it won’t be any different from Apple’s other product launches. The first iPod, the first iPhone, the first iPad, and even the first Apple TV were all vastly inferior to their modern incarnations. What they did was show the possibilities for the future and established a base for Apple to iterate upon. An Apple TV set will be the same: it will be vastly lacking in many areas, and dismissed by many, but the features it focuses on will be excellent, and the future of the product will be something to watch.

A first-generation Apple TV set is not something I’ll be interested in buying. I probably won’t even recommend it to others. But just like the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, the third generation will probably be the product that really achieves greatness. In that sense, I expect 2014 to be the year that Apple really fixes the living room.

The new iPad

The new iPad has been announced. Not iPad 3 — “the new iPad”. I didn’t actually give an opinion on the branding, but I knew this day would have to come eventually. Apple wants to treat these things like the rest of their products, which don’t have numbers after their names. As was suggested on 5by5’s special episode, it could be a reaction to the press negativity towards “4S” in the new iPhone’s name. I wouldn’t be surprised if they drop the numbering system from the next iPhone too.

So, how did I go with my predictions? Here’s my scorecard.

Retina Display: correct.

HD Cameras: half correct. While the rear camera can now shoot 1080p at 30 frames a second, the FaceTime camera is still only VGA. I suppose this could be to maintain decent bandwidth for FaceTime calls, but it is a shame the most impressive use for a camera on an iPad won’t make use of the most impressive feature: the screen.

iPad 2 continues: correct.

Pricing stays the same: correct. In fact, iPads just got cheaper in Australia as Apple adjusts for the exchange rate.

Similar form: correct.

No LTE: wrong. I wasn’t alone in disbelieving the LTE rumours. It is kind of curious considering the state of the technology and adoption, though I suppose Apple figured it would be less than a year before it becomes meaningful. It will be interesting to see if the next iPhone also has LTE: while the iPad can deal with the extra physical size and battery requirements of the LTE chip, the iPhone can’t yet.

Quad-core A6: half correct. Turns out it was the dual-core A5X after all, but it also has a quad-core graphics processor. That’s the part I was thinking necessary.

No haptic feedback yet: correct.

Siri: half correct. The new iPad doesn’t have Siri as we know it, but does use Siri’s voice dictation.

Photos improvements: half correct. We now have iPhoto for iOS, which does pretty much everything that was missing from the Photos app.

Office for iPad: wrong. I guess Apple didn’t want to share the stage. Perhaps we’ll see Office shortly after the new iPad launches?

So that’s six and a half out of eleven. I could totally be a market analyst.

iPad 3 predictions

So Apple has announced the March 7 media event, and it sure looks like the iPad 3 will be the focus. Macworld has a good rundown of the rumours surrounding the iPad and the event. So, like last year, I thought I’d weigh in with my opinions on the expectations.

Retina Display: The strongest rumour surrounding the new iPad is the retina display. A retina display would make images on the iPad look perfect, with the human eye being unable to determine individual pixels. Looking at the invitation picture, the iPad screen seems a lot clearer than the current iPad screen. Maybe I’m imagining it in the picture, but I think it’s highly likely we’ll see a model with a retina display all the same.

HD Cameras: While I doubt we’ll see a camera approaching that of the iPhone 4S, the cameras seem likely to get some sort of a bump, since they’re fairly unspectacular. With the retina display, a camera capable of 1080p video seems likely. I think it makes sense, what with the cameras’ use cases on the iPad, that both front and back cameras are 1080p-capable. Going any bigger than this doesn’t make much sense, as you’re not looking for something the size of an iPad to take great photos.

iPad 2 continues: The idea that Apple will keep the iPad 2 around at a reduced price, just like they do with previous-generation iPhones, seems to have merit. Some have suggested the iPad 3 will actually be more expensive than iPads 2 currently are; I suppose that’s possible, but it would be highly unusual.

Similar form: The rumours suggest a thickness increase of less than 1mm. Such a minute increase is effectively irrelevant. Apart from the display, I think it will be hard to tell an iPad 2 apart from an iPad 3. Pretty much all the existing accessories will probably still will work. And it will have a home button, obviously.

No LTE: LTE, the next-generation telecommunication network technology, has been popularly rumoured to be included in the iPad 3. I’m skeptical. While LTE chips have come a fair way, I think the added power drain when combined with a retina display won’t be worth it. It would also mean Apple is gambling that LTE would be ready for the next iPhone, which it currently isn’t; giving it to the next iPad and not the next iPhone would be quite weird. Combine that with the fact that LTE is just not a selling feature for most of the world, I just don’t see why Apple would feel they need to include LTE. But I wouldn’t be overly surprised if I’m wrong on this one.

Quad-core A6: While some leaks show the existence of an A5X system-on-a-chip, which would presumably be dual-core like the A5, I tend to think we’ll still see a quad-core A6. I don’t know a whole lot about the hardware side of things, but it seems to me a retina display will demand a big jump in chip speed. Perhaps the A5X will be for revised iPads 2?

No haptic feedback yet: While the Macworld breakdown is the first I’ve heard of haptic feedback for the iPad 3, I think it is unlikely. Haptic feedback would mean you could feel the edges of buttons on a touch screen, and get some sort of responsiveness when interacting. I think this is coming eventually, but not just yet. I think Macworld are reading a little too much into the marketing line.

Siri: It seems like a given that the iPad 3 will include Siri.

Photos improvements: I tend to agree with Macworld that the Photos app needs to be more powerful, especially with organising your photo library. It seems like the obvious app to get a bunch more features from amongst the stock apps.

Office for iPad: Like I said before, I expect to see Office for iPad unveiled as part of the event.

An iPad with a retina display is exactly what I’ve been waiting for. Regardless of the actual system-on-a-chip specs or any possible price rise, I’ll certainly be getting an iPad 3.

Apple predictions for 2012

Macworld’s recent 2012 Predictions article rounds up a few Apple-inclined blogosphere members and gets them to predict Apple’s moves for the coming year. I thought I’d give the game a try myself.

Mac OS X

While OS X itself won’t get any big changes this year, what with Lion having just arrived last year, Apple’s Mac software may get some attention. We’re about due for a new version of iLife, though probably not until later in the year, and we’re well overdue for a new version of iWork. I’d expect most new Mac software to build on iCloud somewhat, integrating better with iOS versions of the same apps. It will be interesting to see how Apple approaches iLife updates, since it will be their first since they were made available on the Mac App Store.

iOS

While I seriously doubt we’ll see an Apple TV set, I think we will see an update to the Apple TV box, and an expanded iOS to go with it. This could even extend to third-party app development for Apple TV.

I think on the iPhone and iPad side, we’ll see Siri’s capabilities expanded, though not to allow third-party integration just yet. We may also see Apple’s replacement for the Maps app to move away from reliance on Google.

Hardware

A new iPad early in the year is almost a given. Rumours suggest it will have a retina display and an A6 processor, and I don’t doubt it. I also think Apple will keep the iPad 2 around, making it a cheaper option in much the same model they use with iPhones.

For the iPhone 5, I’m going to go against conventional “wisdom” and suggest that Apple will not dramatically change the industrial design. It may get lighter and slightly thinner, but my prediction is that the iPhone will still look pretty much the same. I’ve been planning a post on just how well considered the iPhone’s industrial design is, and for Apple to change such an excellent and iconic design just doesn’t seem to feel right. Sure, the rest of the industry changes their industrial design every 3 months, but why should this not be another area in which Apple goes against the industry? I have a lot to say on the issue, so I’ll continue in a future blog post.

I also think we’ll see the first MacBooks Pro that look like MacBooks Air, raising the bar further for “Ultrabook” makers.

And probably a new Mac Pro too.

Pie-in-the-sky wish

I’d love to see an iTunes Match for movies, though I seriously doubt this would happen any time soon, if at all. At least a better way to buy (rather than rent) HD movies would be nice, which you currently can’t do in Australia at all. It would also be cool to be able to buy a movie at a discounted price if you’ve already rented it, kind of like Complete My Album.

Also, retina displays on Macs would be nice. The MacBooks Pro would be prime candidates to get something like this.